Russia backs Iran and Syria but is doing deals with Israel and Saudi Arabia
Oil is the key in critical Middle East developments this May.
After meeting Syria’s President Asad in Sochi on 17 May, Russian President Putin said that Iran should withdraw its troops after there is a settlement of the Syrian war.
In a rare instance of a public disagreement with Russia, Iran said that it would remain in Syria so long as there was terrorism there and Damascus wanted it.
It’s not a split or a spat, but significant none the less.
Putin met Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu in Moscow earlier May. There’s talk they reached an agreement to prevent Russian forces on the ground clashing with Israeli jets. The following day, Israel carried out its biggest strike on Iranian targets in Syria.
On 25 May, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said he was engaged in intensive discussions with Russia and other OPEC officials about how to balance the oil market. That was the first time anyone else in Opec heard about it.
It was further evidence oil matters most in the Middle East.
Russia’s doing business with Israel and Saudi Arabia. Both are strong supporters of President Trump’s decision to reimpose sanctions that were relaxed in early 2016 as part of the nuclear deal with Iran.
So once again, the idea that there’s a binary choice about everything in the Middle East is wrong.
Russia’s working with Iran in some areas and with its regional opponents in others.
It’s evidence of a degree of sophisticated flexibility that America under Trump deliberately disavows and provides comfort that a new regional conflict might explode.
Iran unaided is in no position to fight Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US and won’t.
But it doesn’t mean it’s yet ready to compromise and accept even some of the 12 conditions US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Iran must satisfy if it’s to convince Washington to think again about nuclear sanctions.
Trump’s anti-Iran measures and rhetoric do not presage major conflict. It’s not yet a crisis, though it could be.
For Moscow, all this is an opportunity that it won’t resist. Largely marginalised in the Middle East after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1990, Russia’s slowly been rebuilding its regional position since 2003.
Its opinion is now sought publicly by many and, almost certainly, by everyone in private.
Russia’s once more a major player in the Middle East game of nations.
The question is: can it play a constructive role?