Biden has failed his first major foreign policy test

Joe Biden is an old man with big ideas who’s in a hurry. It’s a potentially dangerous combination.

But there’s reason for the world to give Biden the benefit of the doubt. He plans to use America’s material and moral might to address pressing global issues including Covid, climate change and corporate tax-dodging.

It’s a big agenda that would test someone half his age. Has Biden got the energy and determination to succeed? It hasn’t taken long to find out.

US global influence was undermined by four years of unpredictable unilateralism by his predecessor. This included withdrawing from the global climate change convention and even suggesting the US should quit Nato and the WTO.

Biden’s diverted time this spring from his challenging domestic agenda to narrow the breach with longstanding allies. But that was easy: he is pushing against an open door. The world wants a return of conventional, multilateral US diplomacy.

Biden’s Middle East mission looks far harder.  He wants to restore US compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, end the war in Yemen and promote détente between Tehran and Saudi Arabia to help achieve both aims.

There’s a huge obstacle: Israel’s hostility, which is echoed in congress and his own party, to the Iranian government. Convincing Israel and its US supporters that returning to a deal that they denounced from the moment it was unveiled looks like mission impossible. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who gloried in his close relationship with Trump and his family, is not Biden’s natural friend.

But without the nuclear deal, there’s almost no chance of any understanding with Tehran — where presidential elections are due next month — including about Yemen or anywhere else. It’s going to take all Biden’s cunning and experience to meet the promises he has made.

That is why he avoided expending capital on pressing Netanyahu to join a US Middle East peace process initiative. The topic was regularly brushed aside as being low-priority. The White House simply expressed hope that the Abraham Accords between Israel and some Arab states signed last August would create a new and positive environment and that, in due course, the Palestinians would return to talks with Israel unconditionally.

In other words, for Biden, Palestine doesn’t count.  In fact, it’s 20 years since the Arab-Israel divide mattered less in Washington than it did in the first four months of his presidency.

Events in May have shown this policy was nothing more than wishful thinking. On 6 May, a longrunning dispute about ownership of homes in Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah district turned into confrontations between Palestinian residents and Israeli settlers and police. The following day, Israeli police responded to protests against the expulsions around the Al-Aqsa mosque in the Old City by storming the area. It caused outrage in the Muslim world. On 10 May, Palestinian militants began firing rockets into Israel from the Gaza Strip that have since killed 11. Israeli air attacks on Gaza have killed more than 200 and displaced almost 100,000.

Biden was initially silent but eventually called Netanyahu on 12 May although it was announced he had done so solely to express unwavering US support. The US subsequently blocked attempts by the UN Security Council to issue a statement calling for an immediate ceasefire.

More Hamas rockets were fired and the Israeli response intensified. On 16 May, a Gaza building used by US and other media organisations was destroyed. The following day, Biden again telephoned Netanyahu. The White House issued a statement saying Biden supported a ceasefire by both sides but again failed to call for it himself. The job of mediating an agreement was delegated to Egypt.

It took another three days of carnage until Biden finally demanded a ceasefire which came into effect on 21 May.

The world is now counting the cost of the fourth battle for Gaza since Israel withdrew from the strip in 2005. There are winners and losers.

Netanyahu, who was reported to be on the point of losing office, has probably consolidated his support among Israeli voters. Hamas, which the White House excoriates as a terrorist organisation, has demonstrated its willingness to stand up for the Palestinians cause. It has consolidated its position in the West Bank and increased the isolation of Palestine National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas who called and then cancelled overdue Palestinian elections earlier this year. Its status in the Muslim world has been boosted.

There are losers. Israeli peace campaigners have again been marginalised. Arab countries that last August signed up to the Abraham Accords which involve normalising relations with Israel have been embarrassed. Hopes Saudi Arabia would soon join them have been set back and possibly permanently dashed. And of course, Palestinians in Gaza are dealing once again with violent death and destruction.

But the largest consequence is for Biden, who failed to exercise meaningful influence over the government of Israel. This raises the following question: if he’s unable to contain the behaviour of a friend, what chance has he got of pressuring those that aren’t into accepting his ambitious global goals?

Biden’s flunked his first major foreign policy test, and the world was watching.