Qatar Petroleum (QP) is review the impact on its income of lower oil prices that could be permanently lower, the IMF’s Article IV report released on 2 April says.
“The authorities are currently assessing the implications of the oil price drop for Qatar Petroleum revenues,” the report says.
The report forecasts that Qatar’s hydrocarbon exports will fall by one third to $77.8 billion in 2015 and to $69.2 billion in 2016. They will recover to more than $80 billion from 2019, the IMF forecasts.
This is based on an assumption that Brent oil will average $52.8 in 2015 and recover to $73.7 a barrel by 2020. Qatar’s oil production is forecast to fall to 655,000 b/d in 2015 and to about 530,000 b/d in 2020. LNG exports are forecast to hold steady at 77.8 million tonnes in 2015-20.
Qatar Petroleum announced the cancellation of the $6bn Al Karaana petrochemical joint venture with Shell in January. Staff cuts have also been implemented. The company’s structure and operations have been under review following the appointment of Saad al-Kaabi as president and chief executive officer in November 2014.
Qatar: hydrocarbon exports and crude oil and LNG production, 2015-15
2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
Hydrocarbon exports($bn) 118.4 77.8 69.2 75.7 79.3 81.2 82.3
Crude oil 21.6 11.3 12.8 13.6 13.6 13.1 12.7
LNG 55.4 44.7 31.6 35.3 37.8 39.4 40.4
Brent oil price ($) 98.9 52.8 61.6 66.9 70.2 72.3 73.7
Crude oil output (‘000) 670.0 655.0 640.0 625.0 592.6 557.3 529.4
LNG (million tonnes) 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.8
Source: IMF Article IV report, 2 April 2015