Gulf Investment House forecasts higher growth and lower surpluses in GCC in 2014

GCC growth will quicken but the region’s surpluses will decline in 2014, according to the GCC Economic Overview for 2014 published by the Gulf Investment House.

Aggregate GCC GDP is forecast to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2014 compared to 3.7 per cent in 2013. The non-oil sector is expected to grow by 5 per cent in the year. 

Gulf Investment House estimates the GCC’s current account surplus fell to $342bn in 2013 from from $385bn.6bn in 2012. This is still more than 20 per cent of aggregate GDP.

The aggregate GCC budget surplus in 2013 was 10.8 per cent of GDP. Bahrain was the only GCC state to have reported a budget deficit in the year. 

An IMF report issued earlier this month forecast that GCC current account surpluses would be eliminated by the end of 2018 due to lower oil prices and exports and continuing rises in good and service imports.

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